Will Newcastle's attack ever get going?

Selling your best player is never fun for a club. Doubly so if the player was 25 at the time and at the peaks of his powers. This was the case with Alexander Isak and Newcastle this past summer, a partnership which turned sour and eventually ended with a late move to Liverpool for a British record transfer fee. The 3 year partnership was hugely successful, with his 63 goals and assists in the Premier League helping lead to qualification for the Champions League in two of the three seasons (2023, 2025). 

While having to navigate Isak’s transfer saga, Newcastle also had to try and spend some of the eventual money they’d get from the deal. They were linked with various high priced attackers to help fill the void, even getting close with a couple of them. The reviews at the end were mixed, through the combination of the premium from within-league transfers and selling clubs knowing they had money burning through their pockets. Despite this, there was still enough talent that projections for Newcastle in 2025-26 had them competing for a CL spot. 

Things have been weird so far domestically. Newcastle are 12th with 12 points through 9 games, yet there’s about an equal gap in points from where they’re at to 2nd place Bournemouth (18 points) and 18th place Wolves (5 points). Their +1 goal difference is from having one of the worst attacks (tied for 4th last in goals for), and one of the best defenses (tied for 5th best). While their underlying numbers still suggest this is below.

The big change has been the decline in attacking output, as illustrated in the trendline. Newcastle have regularly been one of the better goal scoring clubs in the PL under Eddie Howe, registering 68, 85 and 68 goals over the past three seasons. Newcastle’s non-penalty expected goals per 90 in 2024-25 was 1.46 according to Statsbomb, down to 1.06 through nine matches this season. Public models also show a steep decline in their chance creation. This isn’t a shock, considering they no longer employ a great striker in Isak. 

Something that’s been consistent with Howe as Newcastle manager has been the desire to move the ball forward as quickly as possible. According to Opta Analyst; they’re 17th in sequence time, 15th in sequences featuring 10 or more passes, and 11th in open-play sequences that contain 10+ passes and reach the opponent’s box. Part of that will involve just going long towards the front line, especially Nick Woltemade. Like with other teams, they’ll try to create quickly from a 2nd ball regain. FBref has Newcastle 6th in total long passes attempted. 

With Dan Burn playing significant minutes at left-back this season due to Lewis Hall’s injury, Newcastle’s shape is largely an asymmetric 4-3-3 with him staying in a deeper position. It helps with their defensive solidity, but chips away at their attacking threat. He’ll occasionally make overlapping runs, and even move up to the front line in select moments, but those dynamics don’t occur often. Even with having Anthony Gordon there, the threat on the left side is lessened. Woltemade’s tendency to come short and look to provide link-up play can end up forming something resembling a box midfield, but Newcastle aren’t a team who will play through the middle unless the opposition they’re up against is passive out of possession.

With the change from Isak to Woltemade, Newcastle have to find other ways of stretching the opposition. You’ll see runs from deeper areas by various teammates to try and compensate, including in midfield from Joelinton and Bruno Guimarães. The timing has not consistently been on point so far. Things do improve when they’re able to shift towards the right side. The trio of Kieran Trippier, Bruno Guimarães, and one of Jacob Murphy or Anthony Elanga are better equipped to play off of each other. Opta Analyst’s zones of control helps illustrate the lopsided nature of Newcastle’s attack.

Whenever Newcastle do have successful sequences of play, Guimarães is usually involved in some manner, with or without the ball. He’s constantly trying to connect play with short forward movements within the channel, and if not’s him receiving those passes, those cuts are helpful in creating space for others to receive. Those movements help grease the wheels of the attack. He’s very comfortable handling driven passes between the lines to look to speed up the tempo, so when he does find pockets of space, it can help speed up the tempo of possession. He’s at the heart of Newcastle’s best moments in attack, with the decline in output reflecting the tough attacking environment that’s present.

The middle and final thirds consist of a lot of wing play, and lots of crossing. It’s common to see one of Newcastle’s wingers play a pass to Woltemade, and then sprint nearby to create some form of quick combination. Those plays have had varying levels of success. Only Nottingham Forest, Wolves, and Tottenham have attempted more crosses than Newcastle’s 198. Without having Isak lead the line and often getting into the 6 yard box, those crosses become less threatening. This is part of the issue that comes with having Nick Woltemade as the lone striker, something we previously covered. He’s more comfortable with someone else making those runs, while he can float into the space between the 6 yard area and the edge of the box. Unsurprisingly, Newcastle’s shot chart is full of low quality attempts.

Two things have kept Newcastle’s attack from totally cratering. One is the consistency of their set pieces. Opta Analyst has them tied for 4th in shot from dead ball situations, and 5th in expected goals generated. Only Sunderland, Arsenal, and Chelsea have a greater proportion of their expected goals from set pieces than Newcastle’s 35.4%. They are part of a growing trend in the Premier League, where bigger clubs have found great success here compared to open play. 

The second is that they’re still able to turn defense to attack at a high level. They remain one of the best at generating high press shots. Opta Analyst has them 3rd in high turnovers generated, and tied for 6th in shots from those opportunities. The gap in high turnovers they create vs the number of shots taken likely reflect the loss of Isak in terms of his movement and shot-taking abilities. Add that all together, and you get an uninspiring statistical profile.

Out of possession, Newcastle are defending similarly to previous seasons under Howe. It’s an aggressive setup which looks to win the ball back and attack quickly in advantageous scenarios. Like with most of the league, it’s primarily man-to-man. The results have once again been impressive, conceding the 3rd least shots and 2nd least non-penalty expected goals. Their defensive profile from this season versus last shows a similar pattern.

One way of describing Newcastle is their aggressiveness without the ball resembles a National Hockey League team who has an aggressive forecheck. This is especially true when trying to regain possession, often attacking like a pack of wolves. Statsbomb data has them leading the league in counterpressures, counterpressures in the opposition half and 3rd in overall counterpress regains. There can be some wild gambles taken in these situations, including wingers vacating their position to help hound the opponent in possession. Arsenal had some success being able to evade Newcastle’s counterpress to find open space in their victory last month. Via Opta Analyst, they’ve conceded the 5th most fast breaks in the league. 

Something to look at going forward might be how their mid-block is constructed. It’s a 4-5-1 setup which tries to block access to the center, but isn’t man oriented compared to other mid-blocks in the league (like Crystal Palace). When the ball is passed backwards, it can trigger a high press that if successful, helps in Newcastle’s ability to win possession high up the pitch. According to Opta Analyst, they lead the league in pressed sequences, with a gap of 15 between themselves and 2nd place Brighton. It’s the same as Brighton to Wolves at 8th. 

Some issues have risen to the surface which has helped teams find a bit of success. The first is with the flat line of 5, Newcastle can be susceptible to opponents finding space between the lines with considerable space to move into. If the scanning from the midfielders isn’t astute and the defensive line is being occupied by a target man striker, there’s real estate to be had. The mid-block can be passive and lead towards a low-block and invite pressure, although the defensive personnel for Newcastle makes them capable of having those crucial interventions which don’t lead to shots. In addition, they’ve had some issues trying to defend in the wide areas and have been dusted in. Newcastle’s loss vs. Brighton was an example of the fragility with their 4-5-1 mid-block. Both of their goals came from space being found between the lines, and then being at the opponent’s mercy with how much room they had to carry into. 

Currently, Newcastle are playing at a considerably lower level than in previous years. It’s primarily stemming from a major drop in attack. That’s not a shock considering who they lost, the difficulties of integrating new signings into the game model, and dealing with a few injuries. What’s kept their underlying numbers at a respectable level is their defense remaining up to snuff. Perhaps the passivity of their mid-block could lead to issues down the line, although this might be the season to try and get away with it given league-wide issues with open play creation.

We have a growing body of work which suggests that Eddie Howe’s coaching can help provide a solid floor, with an uncertain ceiling. Being able to regularly create transition opportunities from the defensive shape can help hide talent issues against certain opponents. The same goes for being able to rely on set-piece routines for getting shots off, even of low quality. Both fit with where the PL is currently at. That’s not an insignificant achievement, although perhaps not what the intended vision was following the Saudi Public Investment Fund takeover a few years ago. 

Newcastle are better than their current 12th place position. How much better is up for debate. Their squad doesn’t quite have the horses to mount a credible challenge in multiple competitions due to previous decision making (like losing Elliot Anderson and Yankuba Minteh because of PSR), so there might not be a major rise up the standings if injuries start to truly hit them. This is a season where they hope to patch together a passable attack, and rely heavily on defense to carry them towards a respectable finish. In a weird PL season, that might be enough to once again qualify for Europe. Such a feat would be impressive considering what happened last summer, and would provide another example of how powerful floor-raising coaching can be.

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