Variance Betting - Tues/Wed CL + Champ 25-26Nov2025

Everyone is mid: A Premier League recap

Well, besides Arsenal, they're pretty good. And Wolves, they're pretty bad.

Are Crystal Palace serious Top 4 contenders?

Plus FPL and gambling talk, games we're watching and stuff we're reading.

Variance Betting - Weekend EPL + Champ 20Nov2025

Elliot Anderson has morphed into a superstar

Manchester United and others are looking at a £100m price tag, and he might be worth it.

Is anyone buying Antoine Semenyo at a £65m price tag?

Bournemouth are trying to sell at the top of the market.

Manchester City's over-reliance on Erling Haaland is crazier than you think

City are the top scorers in the Premier League this season, but only one of their players has found the back of the net multiple times.

Here's everything you have to think about running a football club

And why we're betting on the growth of women's football.

Outrights Longshot Bias

Why does the model consistently show favourites as undervalued and longshots as overvalued in outright markets? We explore risk aversion, odds myopia, and rating variance to understand this persistent pattern.

Luka Modrić continues to not get old

Plus games we're watching and stuff we're reading

The secrets to Sunderland's early season success

They've been lucky, but they're also doing a lot right.

The Premier League players in the worst form this season

Find out who's having a really bad time.