What to watch for in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16

Editor’s note: One piece of business up top. If you’re interested in betting on football and want to learn how to get smarter about it, you should subscribe to Variance Betting. Ted gives his picks every week, but it’s much more about how to analyze lines and figure out what good value looks like. This week, he’s got 9 bets on the Champions League and 4 on the EFL Championship. If you want to know what you’re getting into, check out this independent review.

Galatasaray vs. Liverpool

Galatasaray are in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League for the first time in over a decade after a dramatic extra time win over Juventus, but their odds of going one step further are slim. The reason, as we explored ahead of the last Champions League round, is their lack of defensive solidity on the continent’s biggest stage, which was also exposed even by the ten men of Juventus.

Liverpool’s attacking numbers in the Champions League are significantly inflated by their 6-0 thrashing of Qarabağ, but there can be no doubting the fact that they a very formidable front line. The Reds have been a bit shaky in recent weeks — scamming a late win against Nottingham Forest before going on to lose to Wolves in the league — but their defence has been pretty solid for most of the Champions League campaign.

Of course, these teams did meet in the group stage in a match that Liverpool lost, but a repeat of that over two legs is unlikely. As long as Arne Slot’s teams avoid an absolute headloss in Türkiye (as Juventus failed to do), they should have this one in the bag.

Atalanta vs. Bayern Munich

Speaking of having things in the bag, Bayern Munich have to be considered heavy favourites against Atalanta. As we discussed around their tie with Borussia Dortmund, La Dea are spiritually a Bundesliga team. And Bayern Munich don’t take too kindly to Bundesliga teams.

For those who don’t regularly tune in to German football, there’s a lot to look out for in this Bayern side. Their forwards have been particularly sensational as I analysed in November, including 17-year-old starlet Lennart Karl, who was recently the subject of a MoeSquare dissection.

Atalanta’s defence sure as hell isn’t going to win this tie by keeping things quiet, so the Italians’ best bet might be to go for it in a more open game. The mid-season departure of Ademola Lookman has rather limited their threat in such situations, so they’ll need someone else to step up.

The most likely candidate is one of their two main strikers, who have almost evenly split their game time in the league this term. Gianluca Scamacca has the edge in terms of goals scored and is capable of producing a moment of magic thanks to his exceptional ball-striking, but Nikola Krstović is a bit more well-rounded and incredibly consistent at getting shots off.

Atalanta will need at least one of this pair to produce something truly special, but this will most likely be the last we see of them in Europe this term.

Atlético Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur

The last Champions League quarter-finalists to get relegated in the same season were Juventus, although theirs was an administrative demotion as a result of the Calciopoli scandal. I will decline to make a joke about some potential malpractice one of Tottenham’s former sporting directors might have engaged in, but Spurs might have a shot at doing one better than Juventus by finishing in the relegation zone right after reaching the UCL last eight.

Kim recently touched on just how bad Tottenham have been in the league lately (they’re on a five-match losing streak going into this game), but they somehow managed finish fourth in the UCL league phase! That says quite a lot about English clubs’ dominance among Europe’s elite, but it’s not the only reason why I’m not entirely confident of Atlético Madrid’s chances in this tie.

Don’t get me wrong, I still think the Spaniards are the favourites and shouldn’t face too many issues if Spurs are half as abysmal as they have been in recent weeks, but my issue is that Atléti simply aren’t Atléti-ing like they used to. Their defensive numbers in the Champions League are absolutely disgraceful for a Diego Simeone side, and they no longer look nearly as assured with a lead.

Atléti have dropped points from a winning position in La Liga 7/23 times this season, meaning they have a worse record than even the likes of Villarreal and Celta Vigo. They also lost the lead on three occasions in their play-off round tie against Club Brugge. Tottenham have shown the ability to rally from losing positions earlier on this season, so they shouldn’t be written off even if they take a small deficit into their home leg.

Newcastle United vs. Barcelona

Newcastle United’s very first UEFA Champions League knockout campaign continues with a fixture against the mighty Barcelona, but this might just be the perfect sort of match-up for the Magpies to do something truly unforgettable.

Hayden has been particularly bullish in backing Newcastle in this competition throughout the season on the podcast, and he has good reason for it. Eddie Howe’s side’s struggles against disciplined deep blocks are well-documented, but they certainly are a force to be reckoned with in open and end-to-end affairs. As a result, their attacking numbers in the Champions League look miles better than what they’ve produced in the Premier League.

Had they come up against a stronger side that would look to control proceedings like Bayern Munich or Arsenal, things would have looked quite bleak for the Magpies. However, Barcelona haven’t cared to think about control for most of the last two years, so they are sure to give up chances. Hansi Flick’s side have one of the worst xG/shot conceded averages across Europe, as they consistently allow huge chances to sneak past their high line.

Barça’s recent 4-0 defeat in the first leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final against Atlético Madrid epitomised many of their issues, but it hasn’t been all smooth sailing for them even in league games against sides like Athletic Club. One of the main reasons behind that is the fact that their first-choice midfield duo of Pedri and Frenkie de Jong haven’t started a single match together in close to two months, thus limiting their ability to retain possession and also making them more susceptible to counterattacks. The Spaniard is particularly important in this regard and should be expected to start, but de Jong remains injured. His absence could be the difference in this tie.

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Arsenal

Arsenal have had a very strong case for being the best team in Europe throughout this season, so this might be the most one-sided tie of the lot. Regardless, it’s unlikely to produce much entertainment because Bayer Leverkusen themselves are capable haramball engagers.

For instance, Die Werkself kept the shot count in their second leg against Olympiacos down to 7-7 (including a 42-minute period in which neither side registered a single attempt), thus seeing out their 1-0 lead from the first leg. Given their torrid start to the season, this should in fact be seen as a reason to credit the job Kasper Hjulmand has done since taking over.

Leverkusen have been pretty solid in their 5-4-1 defensive block across all competitions, and they’ll have to produce their best in this tie. The best approach for a team of their stature against Arsenal is indeed to dig deep and make the match as quiet as possible, so I’m sure they’ll give it their best shot.

Unfortunately, this tie is in the early kick off slot on Wednesday this week, so I recommend you have another activity lined up for your evening/afternoon (or get some sleep if you’re one of my people in the east).

Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP

Bodø/Glimt’s fairytale Champions League debut season has a surprisingly good chance of continuing into the last eight. Their performance across both legs against Inter was near-impeccable, but what particularly stood out was their display at San Siro.

Even with a first-leg lead, most teams of Glimt’s stature would capitulate under the immense pressure away against such a strong team. Kjetil Knudsen’s side, however, had an excellent game plan which they executed to a T, especially with their well-drilled work across different phases out of possession. This definitely looks to be something they’ve worked on over the winter break as I discussed on the podcast with Patrick, and it could well continue to yield dividends.

Sporting, for their part, will obviously look to avoid coming away from the first leg with a deficit. The man they’ll look to for their goals is one Luis Suárez (of course not that one; this one is Colombian and doesn’t bite people as far as I’m aware), who has a mere 31 goals in 39 matches across all competitions this term.

I’m aware of what happened to the last Sporting CP striker who was scoring at a similar rate, but at 28, Suárez is quite unlikely to make a move to one of Europe’s very elite. He has, however, consistently delivered in big games and continued to get quality chances at an impressive rate in the Champions League, so he’ll certainly be one to watch in this tie.

Paris Saint-Germain vs. Chelsea

One of the regular contributors to this newsletter may have written a long piece on why Paris Saint-Germain should be considered strong title contenders before the Champions League knockouts. Sources say they may have also somewhat revised their opinion.

I still think a full-strength PSG have the potential to go toe-to-toe with any opponent, but the trouble is that they haven’t been fully fit at any point so far this season. At present, they’re particularly light in midfield as both Fabián Ruiz and João Neves are listed as doubtful for the first leg.

The absence of these players has been the root of PSG’s biggest ongoing issue, which is their shocking lack of defensive solidity in midfield. They still look to press quite high with their front three, but are currently incredibly easy to play right through since the likes of Vitinha and Warren Zaïre-Emery aren’t the strongest in defensive duels.

In such a case, the Parisians may find some valuable lessons from Chelsea’s recent approach of rolling out a more measured press and keeping a disciplined shape. The Blues have certainly benefited from such an approach in the Champions League, keeping their xG conceded tally quite low.

Both teams have been inconsistent lately but do possess some serious star power up front, so this should be quite an evenly-matched and exciting tie.

Real Madrid vs. Manchester City

I realise I’ve spent a great deal of this newsletter going on about defensive approaches and other similarly boring matters, so let me end on a note that makes me look less of a nerd and a bit more of a that boy nice watcher.

As Real Madrid and Manchester City prepare to face off for the 14th and 15th times in a decade (excluding friendlies at that), neither side is particularly near the peak of their powers. In both cases, the management and squad-builders have to bear the brunt of the blame, but thankfully for us viewers, they’ve still brought in some guys who are a joy to watch.

Rayan Cherki and Arda Güler have been the key creative forces for either side this season, with a combined 24 assists between them across all competitions. They’re both fairly similar profiles who have been given the freedom to work their magic in central areas for the most part (more so in Güler’s extent; Cherki’s case seems to somewhat depend on Pep Guardiola’s mood), and have clearly delivered the goods.

At a time when physicality is being increasingly emphasised at the very elite level of the game, it’s great to see such diminutive technicians thriving at the world’s biggest clubs. Cherki certainly has a bit more of the stardust about him, but Güler’s consistency has been crucial in an otherwise mostly disappointing campaign for Real Madrid. The Turkish international will definitely need to rise to the occasion if they are to save their season from here.

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